Announcing the 2025 Annual Meeting of TRB's Commuter Rail Systems Subcommittee

104th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

All are welcome to attend the 2025 Annual Meeting of TRB's Commuter Rail Group

Tuesday, January 7, 2025 

 10:15 am - 12:00 pm  

Mint Room (M4), Marriott Marquis, Washington DC

Click Here for Agenda

Click Here for More Information

The 2024 Outlook for North American Suburban Rail Services

 

The North American commuter rail industry experienced booming growth in the 40 years between 1980 and 2020.  The suburb-to-city railroads were riding the crest of wave created by a variety of forces.  Downtown office employment growth, suburbanization, highway congestion and rising fuel prices during this era combined to amplify the pre-existing market for 10-to-40-mile rail journeys (generally under one hour in duration) linking suburban workers with burgeoning employment in downtown office towers.   Between 1986 and 2016 total ridership on all US commuter railroads rose by 67% .  

Downtown office work paid well with good benefits including subsidized transit fares (and parking).  As the suburbanites flocked to the growing city each day, they overwhelmed the radial highways linking suburban workers with their urban offices.  The fees for downtown parking predictably rose.   Demand for suburban passenger rail services (aka commuter rail) grew since the rail services were insulated from highway congestion and allowed suburban workers to inexpensively store their automobiles at or near their homes.   Travelers and transportation officials soon realized that a suburban rail service focused on a downtown terminal was generally faster than driving and cheaper than parking for work trips to rapidly growing central business districts.  The growing prosperity of suburban rail services was inextricably tied to the rising skylines in American downtowns.

The suburban rail services relied on underutilized rail assets freed up as manufacturing and industrial activities left the urban cores in the post-war era.   Compared to other fixed guideway transit service options, the suburban rail services were relatively cheap to implement. They could also cover a large fraction of their operating costs as long as their fares undercut the out-of-pocket expense for driving and parking.  Ridership on existing suburban railways grew by more than 50%.  More than a dozen urban areas added suburban rail service to the mix of transit services offered to compete with the automobile.  Commuter rail sustained growth in downtown employment and contributed to environmental and energy conservation goals.   Overtime, the new and improved railway services also exacerbated suburban sprawl allowing workers to live farther and farther from their downtown jobs.  

During this period, the suburban railways focused on their core mission of moving thousands
of workers to and from their downtown jobs.   Their services and production functions were optimized to fill this need for “mass transit”.  All other markets were of secondary (or tertiary) importance.  Fares were set to discourage travel between suburban stations because such trips sucked up seats and slowed service delivery for downtown riders.  Reverse, midday and evening services that had been offered on the legacy suburban services in the largest cities were maintained and perhaps even expanded.  But the new services largely focused on the downtown commuter market.  

Suddenly in the spring of 2020 the bottom fell out of the downtown employment market.  The population’s mobility was restricted to halt the spread of a deadly virus.  During this time, it was discovered that with a few tweaks, existing communication technologies could be leveraged to substitute for travel to offices.  “Work-from-home” and “hybrid-work” became new paradigms for white collar employment.  These technological and organizationa; innovations have proven so successful that they persist, with widespread acceptance, long after the public health emergency has ameliorated.   

In 2018, 5% of US workers worked at home in 2018. That number had grown to 15% by 2022 Overall transit commuting ridership (all modes) reduced by roughly 40%.  Among the transit modes, the suburban rail services catering to downtown office workers have been most severely affected.   US commuter rail ridership in 2024 is down by 33% and passenger revenues are down by more than 50% .  Nationally the vacancy rate for downtown office space has risen by almost 80% since 2016 .  

Whereas the modern suburban rail services had been covering 50% of their operating costs with fare revenues in 2019, they are now covering only 22% of their costs from the passenger revenues in 2024.  Table 1 compares US industry totals from 2022 with 2019.  At an aggregate level roughly 30 months after the onset of the public health crisis and the work-from-home movement, ridership and revenue have been halved and expenses increased by 12%.  The fare box recovery ratio plummeted by 55%!  However, the overall pattern of how riders used the national network was little changed.  Average trip length was down by 10%.  Revenue per boarding and per passenger mile were little changed.   It will be interesting to see how the ridership, revenue and expense patterns change and evolve as the national industry comes to grip with this dramatic decline in its largest market.  

Table 1: US Commuter Rail Industry Financial and Ridership Comparison:  2019 vs 2022
Performance Metric	2019	2022	Change
Fare Revenue	$3,247,507,154	$1,616,564,078	-50%
Operating Expense	$6,470,423,536	$7,235,103,163	12%
Fare Revenue / Operating Expense	50%	22%	-55%
Passenger Boardings	503,887,308	263,555,447	-48%
Passenger Miles	2,525,212,878	5,924,296,448	-53%
Avg Passenger Trip Mileage	24.9	22.5	-10%
Revenue per Boarding	$6.44	$6.13	-5%
Revenue per Passenger Mile	$0.26	$0.27	5%

To remain relevant, these suburban rail services will need to find new markets and stimulate revenues.  They will also need to adjust their cost profiles.    The days of running a few highly patronized trains each day that would earn enough revenue to carry the entire network of services seems to have passed.  

It’s possible that the downtown office employment market may never recover to 2019 levels.   To maintain their operations and leverage the public’s tremendous sunk investment in track, stations and rolling stock, the suburban railways will need to find new markets to exploit. 

But

These new markets will likely require more frequent and faster service.  The suburban trains will be competing with the automobile along highway segments and at times of day where and when the roads are not as congested. 

·       The new markets will likely to be more fare sensitive than the downtown office market since many will offer free or inexpensive parking.

To offer more service with lower fares, the suburban railroads will need to reduce their costs.  Potential areas for efficiency, that have been demonstrated elsewhere in the world, include

·       New service patterns more evenly distributed over the travel day – to provide a more temporally balanced service and the reduce the peak requirements for crews and rolling stock.

·       Train crew reduction – to reduce operating costs

o   new fare collection systems – to reduce train crewing requirements in addition to improving revenue capture

o   level passenger boarding – to reduce need for crew to manage the boarding process at each open door and to reduce delays

·       Shorter, more energy efficient trains – to reduce fleet size and energy expenditures

·       Innovations in rolling stock and infrastructure maintenance – to lengthen maintenance cycles and to reduce staffing.

Prior to the fall of the downtown office market, the impetus for these innovations at North American commuter railroads had been blunted by very strong performance in the downtown market.   With that market diminishing, the onus for innovation and efficiency will increase. 

Federal funding provided during the peak of the public health crisis has largely shielded the industry from the fiscal realities of declining revenues and escalating costs.  But the reserves of federal funds will soon be depleted.  It will be fascinating to see how the nation’s 22 suburban railroads reinvent themselves to competitively enter new markets and adjust their scopes of service to respond to new fiscal and market realities. 

Click here for a copy of the 2024 Outlook,

INPUT FROM AP065(4) CONCERNING TRIENIAL STRATEGIC PLAN FOR AP065 (Urban Rail Transit Committee)

Research Priorities of the Commuter Rail Subcommittee

 

1.      Work from Home vs Commuter Rail

·       How has urban-suburban commuting changed since March 2020

o   Why? How? and How Much?

·       How will commuter rail ridership recover/change in the Work from Home era?

·       How should commuter rail respond to changing travel patterns?

 

2.      Faster, Better and Cheaper (Efficiency:  Innovation and Research)

With less density of travel, commuter rail will be pressed to lower its costs of operation

·       How does the industry stimulate more nimble responses to changing markets

·       How can industry reduce costs, increase revenue yield, improve service delivery and increase safety with innovations in:

o   Fare Collection and Fare Policy

o   Crewing and One Person Train Operations

o   Level Boarding and Accessibility

o   Leveraging new train control technologies

§  What can we do with PTC? 

§  Automation and Self-Driving Trains

 

3.      Sustainability: Innovations & Research

·       What are the most recent developments in Zero-Emissions Motive Power?

·       How can US Commuter Rail improve/expand its urban services roughly based on the models of overseas systems such as German S-Bahns, Paris RER and London Overground.

·       How does the industry innovate to improve First Mile / Last Mile services at suburban origins and destinations? 

Draft Minutes from the 2024 Annual Meeting

 The minutes from the 2024 Annual Meeting at available at this LINK.  

Many thanks to the 52 people that contributed to the meeting.  It was a great turnout!  

Please forward any suggestions or corrections to david.nelson@jacobs.com or to jberk@gfnet.com

We hope see many of you at the April 29 "Mid Year Meeting"

Announcing the 2024 Annual Meeting of TRB's Commuter Rail Systems Subcommittee

103rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board

All are welcome to attend the 2024 Annual Meeting of TRB's Commuter Rail Group

Wednesday, January 10 2024 10:15 am - 12:00 pm

Independence Salon C (M4), Marriott Marquis, Washington DC

Be prepared to discuss how the commuter railroad you know best is reponding to the challenges of the Work from Home urban travel market.

CLICK HERE for FINAL PROGRAM

CALL FOR PAPERS | Annual Meeting January 7-11, 2024

Commuter Rail and the Work From Home Challenge

Between 1989 and 2019, ridership on commuter railroads in the United States grew by roughly 67% from 300 million to 500 million annual boardings.  The number of US commuter railroads grew from nine in 1988 to 23 in 2019.  Click here for more detail.  The markets for commuter rail service grew with skyrocketing office employment in central business districts.  New jobs increased peak passenger demand for downtown travel which clogged highways and spiked parking charges.   Commuter rail usually turned out to be faster than driving and cheaper than parking.  Every new downtown office tower increased demand for commuter railroad travel as suburbanites filled new well-paid jobs at their desks in the city.  

This all changed in mid-March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic closed factories, schools and offices for the protection of the population.  Travel, transit use and commuter rail ridership plummeted.  Click here for more detail.  

Office workers and their employers exploited the latest commercially-available tools for telecommunication to establish a new mode of "Working-From-Home".  WFH turned out to be a big success that will likely endure long after the painful memories of the pandemic eventually fade.  

As the imperative for social distancing has waned, the world is traveling again.  We're going to ball games, flying to distant cities and dining in restaurants.   But less than half of us have returned to our old offices.  The transformative impact of WFH will likely have a permanent impact on commuting behavior that will be most pronounced in the commuter rail industry.  

Decades were spent building up a national commuter railroad movement that linked suburbs to downtowns as a way of bypassing crowded highways and avoiding expensive parking.  It gave downtowns access to white collar workers that were unwilling or unable to live near their offices.  But that's all changed, perhaps permanently.   Those office workers that were the core of the commuter rail market can now work from home and don't seem likely to return.  WFH is just too easy and effective. 

Now, 3+ years after the start of pandemic, the ridership recovery numbers of the Legacy systems are around 70% to 50% compared to April 2019. The New Starts railroads land somewhere between 70% to as low as 40% compared to April 2019. Click here for more detail.  It’s very important that TRB contribute to the industry’s understanding of how the market for commuter rail services has changed and what factors seem most promising for potential ridership and financial recovery.   The Commuter Rail Subcommittee identified four paper topics related to the new travel market. 

1.  What service parameters are most influential in rebuilding ridership in the “Work From Home” era?  (Service frequency, hours of service, fares, other?) 

a.       What is the impact of service frequency and time span of service on ridership recovery? (The work force/commuter market has significantly changed.)

b.       What is the impact of the fare structure on the ridership? (Different markets such as senior riders and students – what portion of the recovery market do they represent?) 

2. What is the nature of the post-COVID WFH ridership market?
1. Who are the current riders?
2. How do they differ from the pre-COVID market?
3. What market segments came back?
4. What market segments have left commuter rail? 
5. What new market segments have emerged? 

3. What service strategies are being tested to enhance commuter rail ridership in the new Post-COVID era?
1. Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago and others are understood to be exploring significant changes in their service offerings to improve ridership and respond to heightened sensitivity to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. 

                                                               i.      What changes are being explored?  

                                                             ii.      How have riders and railroads responded to this challenge? 

4. Faster, Cheaper and Greener Service 

Early indications suggest that to maximize ridership in the WFH-era commuter railroads will need to compete for new riders.  The rail service will need to be:

·       Faster and more frequent service during more hours of the day to “win-back” patrons that are now driving.   

·       Less expensive to operate to economically offer more service with reduced train loadings

·       Cleaner from a Green House Gas perspective, to respond to climate change goals 

Professional papers that shed light on

·       How service velocity can be improved with shorter dwell times, faster acceleration and higher track speed?

·       How can operating costs per train mile and train hour be reduced with changes in staffing, rolling stock or infrastructure?

·       How can GHG be reduced with new approaches to traction power?

·       How can existing stations be more economically modified to promote level boarding that can

o   reduce dwell times,

o   improve safety,

o   speed service delivery,

o   lower crewing costs

o   providing mobility benefits for mobility challenged travelers?

are welcome and encouraged.

Draft Papers must be submitted by August 1, 2023

Selected papers will be presented at the 103^rd Annual Meeting in Washington.  January 7-11 2024

Click here for detailed information for authors

 

Questions? Please contact

David O. Nelson | Chair, AP065(4) | Senior Consultant | Jacobs Engineering Group |

david.nelson@jacobs.com | Phone: (978) 360-0449

Draft Minutes from the 2023 Annual Meeting

A family enjoys level boarding in Utah.  

Thank you all for participating in and supporting the Annual Meeting of TRB's Commuter Rail
Systems Team.  

A summary of the afternoon's events and a list of participants can be accessed through the links below. 

Key research topics discussed at the meeting included:

• Ridership recovery from the COVID pandemic and the rise of the Work from Home movement

• What is the nature of the new ridership market?  How are the new riders different from before?  Who came back?  Who is new?  What service attibutes are attracting new riders? 

• What service attributes are most effective in attracting commuter rail passengers in the Work from Home era?   Fares?  All day service?  Freqency?   Other?

• How are commuter railroads adjusting their service offerings to attract new riders and respond to salient concerns related to equity, inclusion and climate change? 

• Level boarding - How can commuter railroads more quickly and efficiently develop facilities to provide level boarding at stations and terminals to reduce dwell times, improve safety, speed service delivery, reduce crewing costs and provide mobility benefits for travelers with physical, sensory or cognitive functional limitations.   Critical success factors to be considered might include: Station designs and building materials, freight clearance for shared track corridors, impact of emergency egress concerns on station designs and costs, role of regulation in promoting and inhibiting change.
  

If you have any other suggestions or comments, you are heartly encouraged to leave comments below or email david.nelson@jacobs.com or jberk@gfnet.com  

Click Here for Draft Meeting Minutes and List of Attendees